The big parties are doing badly
The polls are showing remarkable results in The Netherlands. Before I mentioned that the Freedom Party (PVV) is polling at 27-28 seats. The other parties are in terrible shape. A big parties such as the Christian Democrats is polling at a number of seats of 22 in the 150 seat Parliament. This party used to have more then 30 seats all the time. But the most remarkable result is the result of the Dutch Labour Party (PvdA), by being reduced to 14 seats. That is less than 10 percent of the electorate!
A big reason that Labour is doing so badly is their pro-multicultural stance, combined with the economic crisis and the proposals to push the pension age from 65 to 67. Voters are running away to the Left, staying at home or even voting for the PVV.
Politics has never been such fun! (Mad laugh)
Other European countries
In Germany things are similar. The SPD, the German Labour Party (German), polled at a all time low of 23 percent during the recent elections. Main reason was a proposal to move the pension age from 65 up to 67.
Showing posts with label Polls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Polls. Show all posts
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Wilders' Freedom Party steams ahead
Dutch politics thrown in chaos
Confusion reigns on the political polling front in The Netherlands. This blog reported a month ago that the Freedom Party (PVV) was losing seats. But now the news came out today that the PVV is polling at 28 seats in the 150 seat parliament. The other "big" parties have fallen to 22 seats or less. Therefore the PVV is now the biggest political party in the Netherlands! It also means that the theme of political splintering that this blog has featured is continuing and that Dutch politics will be increasingly paralysed and chaotic. Comparable to Belgium now or Israel for the past twenty years.
The state of political polling
It also seems that one of the polling firms, Political Barometer by Synovate, has lost the plot. The bi-weekly poll first reported a big increase for the PVV of 9 seats together. And then in a later published poll (Dutch) a big drop in seats which showed the PVV losing ground and grasping.
Unorthodoxy rules
On the third Tuesday of September The Netherlands has an annual "State of the Union" like event called "Prinsjesdag". The politicos of the ruling coalition gave a weak and unconvincing show. Geert Wilders performed masterfully giving a sarcasm-laced speech in which he compared the cabinet to a car with a dead battery. In the speech he went as far as proposing a headscarf tax, a tax specifically aimed at muslim women.
That was highly unorthodox and many people feel uneasy about it. Including me. But it does not to seem to have hurt him.
We could call him "Teflon Geert".
Confusion reigns on the political polling front in The Netherlands. This blog reported a month ago that the Freedom Party (PVV) was losing seats. But now the news came out today that the PVV is polling at 28 seats in the 150 seat parliament. The other "big" parties have fallen to 22 seats or less. Therefore the PVV is now the biggest political party in the Netherlands! It also means that the theme of political splintering that this blog has featured is continuing and that Dutch politics will be increasingly paralysed and chaotic. Comparable to Belgium now or Israel for the past twenty years.
The state of political polling
It also seems that one of the polling firms, Political Barometer by Synovate, has lost the plot. The bi-weekly poll first reported a big increase for the PVV of 9 seats together. And then in a later published poll (Dutch) a big drop in seats which showed the PVV losing ground and grasping.
Unorthodoxy rules
On the third Tuesday of September The Netherlands has an annual "State of the Union" like event called "Prinsjesdag". The politicos of the ruling coalition gave a weak and unconvincing show. Geert Wilders performed masterfully giving a sarcasm-laced speech in which he compared the cabinet to a car with a dead battery. In the speech he went as far as proposing a headscarf tax, a tax specifically aimed at muslim women.
That was highly unorthodox and many people feel uneasy about it. Including me. But it does not to seem to have hurt him.
We could call him "Teflon Geert".
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Freedom Party suffers in the polls
Freedom Party suffers from a lack of attention
According to the Barometer the Freedom Party (PVV) is experiencing a drop (Dutch) in its political popularity. Barometer is a poll run by Nova, a government subsidized news and commentary program.
According to Nova, the PVV dropped 4 seats out of a 150 in the month July. The interpretation is that the party which communicates with its voter base mostly through the media. This is because it lacks affiliated newspapers, or a church like most of the other parties. When it is summer there is a dearth of news, hence the drop.
It is the first time that the PVV is dropping in the polls, since the party was founded.
According to the Barometer the Freedom Party (PVV) is experiencing a drop (Dutch) in its political popularity. Barometer is a poll run by Nova, a government subsidized news and commentary program.
According to Nova, the PVV dropped 4 seats out of a 150 in the month July. The interpretation is that the party which communicates with its voter base mostly through the media. This is because it lacks affiliated newspapers, or a church like most of the other parties. When it is summer there is a dearth of news, hence the drop.
It is the first time that the PVV is dropping in the polls, since the party was founded.
Monday, June 29, 2009
The Wilders effect on Dutch Muslims
The effect of Geert Wilders' rise on Dutch multicultural society
This blog has featured many stories on the phenomenal rise of the Freedom Party (PVV) and the electrifying effect it has had on a section of the Dutch public.
But what about the Muslims in The Netherlands and Islam in Europe? Obviously the rise of a movement hostile to Islam must be a matter of concern, fear and anger to them, right?
Right!
Dutch Muslim politicians think Muslims may turn against society
Rotterdam has a Muslim mayor, the recently appointed Achmed Aboutaleb. A member of Mr. Aboutaleb's council, Turkish Labour aelderman Hamit Karakus (Dutch), gave vent to his feelings. In newspaper "De Volkskrant" he says:
The opinion of the Muslim in the street
A poll commissioned by a Dutch News and Commentary TV show, called Netwerk, completes the picture painted by the Rotterdam municipal council member.
The Netwerk poll (Dutch) asked 319 Muslims of Moroccan and Turkish origin about their thoughts about The Netherlands since Geert Wilders is becoming popular. Moroccans and Turks constitute seventy percent of all Muslims in The Netherlands.
A majority feels at home, but the trend is downward
The majority (76 percent) of sampled Muslims feel at home in The Netherlands. Half of Dutch Muslims (51 percent) thinks of leaving The Netherlands more and more often.
Dutch Muslims identify less with the Dutch nation. A quarter of those sampled see Dutch as their primary identity. 29 percent felt like that ten years ago. 28 percent feels primarily Muslim, compared with a fifth ten years ago.
A widening rift
The increasing popularity of Geert Wilders amongst the ethnic Dutch hurts the feelings of Dutch Muslims. 57 percent feels less at home. 74 percent thinks the Dutch have a lower opinion of Muslims as a result of Geert Wilders' popularity. 39 percent feels discriminated against more often since Wilders has become a power in Dutch politics.
Fear, uncertainty, doubt
22 percent of Dutch Muslims feels fear. And another 22 percent of sampled Dutch Muslims feel hatred as a result of Geert Wilders' popularity with the ethnic Dutch.
The Muslim in the street agrees with Hamit
The Netwerk poll and the words of Rotterdam Aelderman Hamit Karakus indicate a growing rift between Dutch Muslims and wider society, coinciding with the growing electoral strength of Geert Wilders and the PVV. The Netherlands is becoming a less attractive country for Muslims.
The report on Dutch Muslims' unhappiness with Mr. Wilders can be downloaded here as a pdf.
This blog has featured many stories on the phenomenal rise of the Freedom Party (PVV) and the electrifying effect it has had on a section of the Dutch public.
But what about the Muslims in The Netherlands and Islam in Europe? Obviously the rise of a movement hostile to Islam must be a matter of concern, fear and anger to them, right?
Right!
Dutch Muslim politicians think Muslims may turn against society
Rotterdam has a Muslim mayor, the recently appointed Achmed Aboutaleb. A member of Mr. Aboutaleb's council, Turkish Labour aelderman Hamit Karakus (Dutch), gave vent to his feelings. In newspaper "De Volkskrant" he says:
young Muslims (Dutch) do not feel that they are accepted. Young, well educated Muslims wonder whether they have a future in The Netherlands. It may be that this may lead to radicalisation of a small fraction of Muslims in The Netherlands. People who wonder about their future fall back on the certainties of their own group. I can see how the message of radical Muslims strikes a chord amongst a still small, but growing group.Are the words of the professional politician echoed by society?
Wilders is responsible for the growing rift between Muslims and indigenous Dutch. Half of the population of Rotterdam has a immigrant origin by now.
The opinion of the Muslim in the street
A poll commissioned by a Dutch News and Commentary TV show, called Netwerk, completes the picture painted by the Rotterdam municipal council member.
The Netwerk poll (Dutch) asked 319 Muslims of Moroccan and Turkish origin about their thoughts about The Netherlands since Geert Wilders is becoming popular. Moroccans and Turks constitute seventy percent of all Muslims in The Netherlands.
A majority feels at home, but the trend is downward
The majority (76 percent) of sampled Muslims feel at home in The Netherlands. Half of Dutch Muslims (51 percent) thinks of leaving The Netherlands more and more often.
Dutch Muslims identify less with the Dutch nation. A quarter of those sampled see Dutch as their primary identity. 29 percent felt like that ten years ago. 28 percent feels primarily Muslim, compared with a fifth ten years ago.
A widening rift
The increasing popularity of Geert Wilders amongst the ethnic Dutch hurts the feelings of Dutch Muslims. 57 percent feels less at home. 74 percent thinks the Dutch have a lower opinion of Muslims as a result of Geert Wilders' popularity. 39 percent feels discriminated against more often since Wilders has become a power in Dutch politics.
Fear, uncertainty, doubt
22 percent of Dutch Muslims feels fear. And another 22 percent of sampled Dutch Muslims feel hatred as a result of Geert Wilders' popularity with the ethnic Dutch.
The Muslim in the street agrees with Hamit
The Netwerk poll and the words of Rotterdam Aelderman Hamit Karakus indicate a growing rift between Dutch Muslims and wider society, coinciding with the growing electoral strength of Geert Wilders and the PVV. The Netherlands is becoming a less attractive country for Muslims.
The report on Dutch Muslims' unhappiness with Mr. Wilders can be downloaded here as a pdf.
Sunday, March 01, 2009
Geert Wilders' Freedom Party is the greatest!
According to a poll (Dutch) released yesterday Geert Wilders' Freedom Party (PVV) has the largest share of the votes if elections would be held now. The Freedom Party polled at 27, while the next biggest party polled at 26.
This low point of the Christian Democrats shows the fractured nature of the Dutch political landscape. The advances made by the Freedom Party were mostly at the expense of the other "right wing" parties. It will be very difficult to put governments together, governments will consist of three or more parties, be unstable and they will lack clear mandates.
Minor parties such as the Christian Union and the Greens will have enormous leverage during negotiations over coalitions. I forecast new limitations on abortion and stricter limits on euthanasia.
The graph of the poll is linked here.
Earlier polls:
15 February 2009: Freedom Party polls at 25 seats
8 Februari 2009: Freedom Party polls at 23 seats
13 March 2007: Freedom Party polls at 18 seats
This low point of the Christian Democrats shows the fractured nature of the Dutch political landscape. The advances made by the Freedom Party were mostly at the expense of the other "right wing" parties. It will be very difficult to put governments together, governments will consist of three or more parties, be unstable and they will lack clear mandates.
Minor parties such as the Christian Union and the Greens will have enormous leverage during negotiations over coalitions. I forecast new limitations on abortion and stricter limits on euthanasia.
The graph of the poll is linked here.
Earlier polls:
15 February 2009: Freedom Party polls at 25 seats
8 Februari 2009: Freedom Party polls at 23 seats
13 March 2007: Freedom Party polls at 18 seats
Monday, February 09, 2009
Labour hardly bigger than Freedom Party
Last week this blog featured a post about the diminishing centre of Dutch politics. Today polling institute peil.nl polled the Dutch Labour Party (PvdA) even lower than last week. They lost two seats and are now polling at 24 seats. That is only one more than Geert Wilders' Freedom Party (PVV).
The two seats went to other Left wing parties.
The two seats went to other Left wing parties.
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