The right-liberal VVD has become the biggest party in the elections of 9 June 2010.
VVD Voters favour Wilders
Polls have shown that the majority of the voters of the VVD desire a coalition with the PVV. 57 percent of those who voted VVD (Dutch) want their party to form a government with PVV. A rightwing coalition is preferred over a coalition with the multiculturalist leftist parties. Only 21 percent of VVD voters favour this. Amongst those who voted Christian Democrats a minority favoured a coalition with the PVV. Most of the former voters of the CDA in 2006 who favoured the PVV already voted PVV in this election. Obviously the PVV was greatly helped by how sick voters were of the Balkenende government.
Showing posts with label Elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Elections. Show all posts
Friday, June 11, 2010
Freedom Party turns The Netherlands to the right
Some remarkable results in the last elections for Geert Wilders.
Taking votes from the ultra-left
At the parliamentary elections on 9 June Geert Wilders' Freedom Party (PVV) managed to turn The Netherlands to the right. Usually rightwing parties win at the expense of other rightwing parties and likewise leftwing parties win by cannibalizing other leftwing parties. However the PVV managed to win votes (Dutch) amongst those who used to vote for the ultra leftwing Socialist Part, a party to the left of Labour (PvdA).
Mobilizing a new base and demobilizing opposition
Another first is that the PVV managed to mobilize many voters who never used to vote. Eighteen percent of his voters did not vote before. At the same time the PVV demobilizes the electorate of other parties, as the total number of voters at this election was lower than in previous elections. To be precise the number of voters dropped by -5.6 percentage points, voter turn out was 80.3 percent in 2006 and stood now at 74.7.
Taking votes from the ultra-left
At the parliamentary elections on 9 June Geert Wilders' Freedom Party (PVV) managed to turn The Netherlands to the right. Usually rightwing parties win at the expense of other rightwing parties and likewise leftwing parties win by cannibalizing other leftwing parties. However the PVV managed to win votes (Dutch) amongst those who used to vote for the ultra leftwing Socialist Part, a party to the left of Labour (PvdA).
Mobilizing a new base and demobilizing opposition
Another first is that the PVV managed to mobilize many voters who never used to vote. Eighteen percent of his voters did not vote before. At the same time the PVV demobilizes the electorate of other parties, as the total number of voters at this election was lower than in previous elections. To be precise the number of voters dropped by -5.6 percentage points, voter turn out was 80.3 percent in 2006 and stood now at 74.7.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
All these friggin parties
Politics gets confusing
A look in closer detail on the splintered and confused jumble of little parties that are now going to populate Dutch parliament at Esther's Islam in Europe blog.
A look in closer detail on the splintered and confused jumble of little parties that are now going to populate Dutch parliament at Esther's Islam in Europe blog.
Freedom Party scores major victory
The election results of the 9 june 2010 national election
Geert Wilders' Freedom Party (PVV) will probably get 22 seats in the 150 seat Dutch parliament. The Liberal-Conservative VVD made a draw with Labour (PvdA) and will get 31 seats. Henceforth nationalism will be a force to be reckoned with.
The collaps of Christian - Democracy
The second most amazing result is the downsizing of the Christian-Democrats which fell to a mere 21 seats, smaller than the Freedom Party.
These results are stunning. The Netherlands has entered a new era. It has left the era dominated by the Christian parties and enters an era of splintered politics and society.
Geert Wilders' Freedom Party (PVV) will probably get 22 seats in the 150 seat Dutch parliament. The Liberal-Conservative VVD made a draw with Labour (PvdA) and will get 31 seats. Henceforth nationalism will be a force to be reckoned with.
The collaps of Christian - Democracy
The second most amazing result is the downsizing of the Christian-Democrats which fell to a mere 21 seats, smaller than the Freedom Party.
These results are stunning. The Netherlands has entered a new era. It has left the era dominated by the Christian parties and enters an era of splintered politics and society.
Tuesday, March 09, 2010
Fragmentation in The Netherlands
The Rise of the PVV
The results of the Dutch municipal election had a big effect outside of The Netherlands. This is due to the good results of Geert Wilders' PVV (Freedom Party). The right-wing PVV came in second in the city of The Hague, the seat of the national government and today I read that Geert Wilders will actually take a seat in the municipal council. In the new city of Almere the PVV came in first and became the biggest party. Both cities saw the PVV litterally starting from zero seats. Nothing illustrates the fragmentation of Dutch society better. The older parties have lost much of their connection to their electorate. This fragmentation means that the political class of about 30.000 hard core party members are socially and ideologically isolated from the voters they are supposed to represent. They do not know what to do with the unhappiness of the voters. This unhappiness is an effect of cultural alieniation as a result of growing Muslim and other immigrant colonies amongst the ethnic Dutch, fear of crime and potential job loss as a result of the global crisis. The older parties want to appeal to the public on issues such as the economy, whereas the dominant and most urgently felt issue in The Netherlands is the threesome that starts with an I. Immigration, Integration and Islam. These issues are monopolized by Mr. Geert Wilders' PVV and he stands to gain from them, becoming the second biggest party. Or perhaps even first.
Why The Hague?
Mr. Wilders chose his battle grouds well. The four main cities in The Netherlands are Utrecht, The Hague, Rotterdam and Amsterdam. Amsterdam is quite prosperous. The city is 50 percent immigrant origin, who vote monopolistically for the Left. The ethnic Dutch in Amsterdam are quite prosperous and many support the Left feel like world citizens and have reason to do so. Their party of choice would be the Greens or D66, a quintessential Liberal party. The PVV could gain here as they start from zero, but not as much as elewhere. Rotterdam already has Leefbaar Rotterdam, a strong populist local party in Pim Fortuyn's track, so any effort in Rotterdam would result in canibbalisation on the right. Utrecht is relatively unaffected by immigration. The Hague has a strong tradition of voting for nationalist parties and a serious problem with immigrants. It was a good battle ground for the PVV and they got an excellent result.
Why Almere?
Then there is Almere. Almere is a new city built in the 1960ies on land that was reclaimed from the sea in 1942. It lies a bit to the East from Amsterdam. The city is populated by people who moved from Amsterdam in the 1970ies and later. A strong motive to move was the takeover of Amsterdam by Muslim immigrants. These days there is a influx of non-western immigrants into Almere and the people there do not want to be ethnically cleansed once more. Voters turned out in significant numbers to vote PVV, voting attendance was high in Almere compared to other years and relative to the rest of the country. The PVV mobilizes voters who used to not vote.
The effect of the municipal elections on the national elections
The PVV only participated in elections in the aformentioned two cities. Polling expert Maurice de Hondt analyzed the voting behaviour (Dutch) in the municipal elections and the expected effect on the national elections on June the 9th. It turns out that the PVV has big support amongst those who voted other parties in the municipal elections. Especially the Liberal-Conservative VVD party, the new right-wing splinter TON and voters for local parties will vote PVV. All together Maurice de Hondt estimates that the PVV will become the biggest party in the national parliament with 16.2 percent of the votes. Bigger than the CDA (Christian Democrats) and PvdA (Labour). This is a picture of incredible political fragmentation.
The Geert Wilders Hate Speech Trial
What does the fall of the coalition and the new national elections imply for the hate-speech trial against Geert Wilders? June is one month before the resumption of this trial against PVV leader Wilders in July. Firstly, it means that some dark influence behind the screens against Mr. Wilders was removed in the form of Interior Minister Guusje ter Horst (PvdA) stepping down. However on the Justice Ministry there is still a dark presence in the form of Hirsch Ballin (CDA). Hirsch Ballin is also the provisional Minister of the Interior so he can make life interesting for Mr. Wilders. It remains to be seen what he will do. Providing we ever really find out. After the elections in June formal or informal PVV support will be necessary to form a new right-wing coalition government which is the preferred option for the CDA. This means they will be directly in contact with Geert Wilders all the time and he will be able to influence his trial that way, while the top Christian-Dems will do some horse trading. The formation of the government will take months. In the end a three or four party coalition. Voters get an unrepresentative government again as the new coalition will be the result of political bartering behind closed doors.
A field of liberal destruction
In conclusion. The Netherlands is no political or social unit anymore. The nation has been destroyed by Liberla policies and has to be rebuilt or to be broken down and abandoned. The PVV may want to change that but it lacks the means to do so.
The results of the Dutch municipal election had a big effect outside of The Netherlands. This is due to the good results of Geert Wilders' PVV (Freedom Party). The right-wing PVV came in second in the city of The Hague, the seat of the national government and today I read that Geert Wilders will actually take a seat in the municipal council. In the new city of Almere the PVV came in first and became the biggest party. Both cities saw the PVV litterally starting from zero seats. Nothing illustrates the fragmentation of Dutch society better. The older parties have lost much of their connection to their electorate. This fragmentation means that the political class of about 30.000 hard core party members are socially and ideologically isolated from the voters they are supposed to represent. They do not know what to do with the unhappiness of the voters. This unhappiness is an effect of cultural alieniation as a result of growing Muslim and other immigrant colonies amongst the ethnic Dutch, fear of crime and potential job loss as a result of the global crisis. The older parties want to appeal to the public on issues such as the economy, whereas the dominant and most urgently felt issue in The Netherlands is the threesome that starts with an I. Immigration, Integration and Islam. These issues are monopolized by Mr. Geert Wilders' PVV and he stands to gain from them, becoming the second biggest party. Or perhaps even first.
Why The Hague?
Mr. Wilders chose his battle grouds well. The four main cities in The Netherlands are Utrecht, The Hague, Rotterdam and Amsterdam. Amsterdam is quite prosperous. The city is 50 percent immigrant origin, who vote monopolistically for the Left. The ethnic Dutch in Amsterdam are quite prosperous and many support the Left feel like world citizens and have reason to do so. Their party of choice would be the Greens or D66, a quintessential Liberal party. The PVV could gain here as they start from zero, but not as much as elewhere. Rotterdam already has Leefbaar Rotterdam, a strong populist local party in Pim Fortuyn's track, so any effort in Rotterdam would result in canibbalisation on the right. Utrecht is relatively unaffected by immigration. The Hague has a strong tradition of voting for nationalist parties and a serious problem with immigrants. It was a good battle ground for the PVV and they got an excellent result.
Why Almere?
Then there is Almere. Almere is a new city built in the 1960ies on land that was reclaimed from the sea in 1942. It lies a bit to the East from Amsterdam. The city is populated by people who moved from Amsterdam in the 1970ies and later. A strong motive to move was the takeover of Amsterdam by Muslim immigrants. These days there is a influx of non-western immigrants into Almere and the people there do not want to be ethnically cleansed once more. Voters turned out in significant numbers to vote PVV, voting attendance was high in Almere compared to other years and relative to the rest of the country. The PVV mobilizes voters who used to not vote.
The effect of the municipal elections on the national elections
The PVV only participated in elections in the aformentioned two cities. Polling expert Maurice de Hondt analyzed the voting behaviour (Dutch) in the municipal elections and the expected effect on the national elections on June the 9th. It turns out that the PVV has big support amongst those who voted other parties in the municipal elections. Especially the Liberal-Conservative VVD party, the new right-wing splinter TON and voters for local parties will vote PVV. All together Maurice de Hondt estimates that the PVV will become the biggest party in the national parliament with 16.2 percent of the votes. Bigger than the CDA (Christian Democrats) and PvdA (Labour). This is a picture of incredible political fragmentation.
The Geert Wilders Hate Speech Trial
What does the fall of the coalition and the new national elections imply for the hate-speech trial against Geert Wilders? June is one month before the resumption of this trial against PVV leader Wilders in July. Firstly, it means that some dark influence behind the screens against Mr. Wilders was removed in the form of Interior Minister Guusje ter Horst (PvdA) stepping down. However on the Justice Ministry there is still a dark presence in the form of Hirsch Ballin (CDA). Hirsch Ballin is also the provisional Minister of the Interior so he can make life interesting for Mr. Wilders. It remains to be seen what he will do. Providing we ever really find out. After the elections in June formal or informal PVV support will be necessary to form a new right-wing coalition government which is the preferred option for the CDA. This means they will be directly in contact with Geert Wilders all the time and he will be able to influence his trial that way, while the top Christian-Dems will do some horse trading. The formation of the government will take months. In the end a three or four party coalition. Voters get an unrepresentative government again as the new coalition will be the result of political bartering behind closed doors.
A field of liberal destruction
In conclusion. The Netherlands is no political or social unit anymore. The nation has been destroyed by Liberla policies and has to be rebuilt or to be broken down and abandoned. The PVV may want to change that but it lacks the means to do so.
Dutch municipal election: coming on foot
Local politics influencing national politics
The 2010 municipal elections had been scheduled for March 3. The national coalition government of PvdA (Labour), CDA (Christian Democrats) and CU (Christian Union) fell apart just before these elections, due to the PvdA socialist seeking political advantage by making a pacifist gesture over Afghanistan to their core voters. This was a repeat of what they did over Srebrenica in 2001. Hence the municipal elections had a big impact on the national elections which are due in June.
Three trends
The municipal elections are notable for a number of trends appearing. The further weakening of trust in Dutch society, the increasing fragmentation of the public and the increasing polarization of ethnic Dutch against Muslims and vice versa.
The end of The Netherlands
Trust weakened in Dutch society as a result of voting irregularities in Rotterdam and Amsterdam. Political fragmentation reflecting a deeper social fragmentation is manifest in the weakening of main parties and the rise of the PVV (Freedom Party). The increasing ethno-religious polarization is evident in a number of coups by ethnic Turks and other Muslims in order to take over local chapters of Leftist parties such as PvdA. This phenomenon of local Muslim coups is becoming more and more widespread for a while now and I blogged about such a case on February 2, a month before the elections.
The way back
I suppose the most fundamental trend is the erosion of trust, caused by mass-immigration. A Chinese proverb states: trust comes on foot and goes on a horse. It will take generations to rebuilt the trust that was squandered in the last 20 years of mass immigration and multi-culturalism.
The 2010 municipal elections had been scheduled for March 3. The national coalition government of PvdA (Labour), CDA (Christian Democrats) and CU (Christian Union) fell apart just before these elections, due to the PvdA socialist seeking political advantage by making a pacifist gesture over Afghanistan to their core voters. This was a repeat of what they did over Srebrenica in 2001. Hence the municipal elections had a big impact on the national elections which are due in June.
Three trends
The municipal elections are notable for a number of trends appearing. The further weakening of trust in Dutch society, the increasing fragmentation of the public and the increasing polarization of ethnic Dutch against Muslims and vice versa.
The end of The Netherlands
Trust weakened in Dutch society as a result of voting irregularities in Rotterdam and Amsterdam. Political fragmentation reflecting a deeper social fragmentation is manifest in the weakening of main parties and the rise of the PVV (Freedom Party). The increasing ethno-religious polarization is evident in a number of coups by ethnic Turks and other Muslims in order to take over local chapters of Leftist parties such as PvdA. This phenomenon of local Muslim coups is becoming more and more widespread for a while now and I blogged about such a case on February 2, a month before the elections.
The way back
I suppose the most fundamental trend is the erosion of trust, caused by mass-immigration. A Chinese proverb states: trust comes on foot and goes on a horse. It will take generations to rebuilt the trust that was squandered in the last 20 years of mass immigration and multi-culturalism.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Turkish political language in municipal elections
On 3 March there will be municipal elections in The Netherlands. The PvdA (Labour) party is being embarrassed by Dutch and Turkish members who are campaigning in Turkish. Rotterdam PvdA candidate Fikri Demirtas has a Turkish language poster. Amsterdam PvdA candidate Lodewijk Asscher has a Turkish language poster. Amsterdam candidate Freek Ossel also has a Turkish language poster.
Vunerable right flank of Christian parties
There will be municipal elections on March 3. Two days ago on 15 February there was a political debate on Dutch public TV. Amongst others the PVV (Freedom Party) send Geert Wilders and the coalition party CU (Christian Union) was represented by Arie Slob.
The CU is part of the ruling coalition togehter with CDA (Christian Democrats) and PvdA (Labour). CU is supposed to be a Conservative party, but it moved to the left on many issues and is losing its right-wing profile. This makes the CU vunerable to competition from the right especially from the Geert Wilders' PVV. This became glaringly obvious during the debate. At some point Mr. Wilders launched an attack against CU's Arie Slob asking
Snouck's Commentary: as the right-wing parties are moving to the left they become more and more vunerable to competition from the PVV. The PVV stands to make a lot of hay during the national elections from the failure from CDA and CU to champion the Duch Christian heritage. Polls show all parties a vunerable to competition for votes from the PVV, but the Christian parties more than the Leftist parties. In the municipal elections the effect will not be significant as the PVV is only participating in four municipalities.
The whole fragment of the debate can be viewed here (Dutch).
The CU is part of the ruling coalition togehter with CDA (Christian Democrats) and PvdA (Labour). CU is supposed to be a Conservative party, but it moved to the left on many issues and is losing its right-wing profile. This makes the CU vunerable to competition from the right especially from the Geert Wilders' PVV. This became glaringly obvious during the debate. At some point Mr. Wilders launched an attack against CU's Arie Slob asking
Mr. Slob you represent a Christian Party in The Netherlands. Do you think Islamic culture is equal to Christian culture, can be combined with the rule of law in a democratic state, do you see Islam is a totalitarian ideology [more of the same from Wilders].... ?Arie Slob answers for the CU:
There are a million Muslims in The Netherlands, they cannot be excluded, they have to obey the rules everybody has to obey our rules [waffles on]Geert Wilders interrupts:
That is no answer to my question, you are not answering my question is Islam equal to Christianity ?Arie Slob:
Do not turn groups of people against each otherWilders [mockingly in a falsetto voice]:
He is not answering my question he is not answering my question!The public laughs. In the studio a political commentators says that the question is clever and is impossible for the Christian Union to answer.
Snouck's Commentary: as the right-wing parties are moving to the left they become more and more vunerable to competition from the PVV. The PVV stands to make a lot of hay during the national elections from the failure from CDA and CU to champion the Duch Christian heritage. Polls show all parties a vunerable to competition for votes from the PVV, but the Christian parties more than the Leftist parties. In the municipal elections the effect will not be significant as the PVV is only participating in four municipalities.
The whole fragment of the debate can be viewed here (Dutch).
Tuesday, September 01, 2009
Germany: multiculturalism waning
A rising tide of opposition to multiculturalism
During the state elections in Germany, the patriotic Pro-Deutschland movement achieved some remarkable results in the state of Nordrhein-Westfalen. The state has 18 million inhabitants.
The election results for 31 August 2009
According to a press release on the website of the Pro-Deutschland movement in Nordrhein-Westfalen (German) the following percentages of the vote were chalked up:
5.4 in the city of Cologne
6.0 in the city of Bergheim
5.1 in the city of Radevormwald
4.5 in the city of Dormagen
4.3 in the city of Gelsenkirchen
4.0 in the city of Leverkusen
What can the opposition do?
The results shows that a viable political opposition to multiculturalism is developing in Germany. Compare it to the increasing strength of localist parties in The Netherlands in the late 90ies. This development paved the way for the results of Pim Fortuyn and Geert Wilders between 2001 and 2009.
During the state elections in Germany, the patriotic Pro-Deutschland movement achieved some remarkable results in the state of Nordrhein-Westfalen. The state has 18 million inhabitants.
The election results for 31 August 2009
According to a press release on the website of the Pro-Deutschland movement in Nordrhein-Westfalen (German) the following percentages of the vote were chalked up:
5.4 in the city of Cologne
6.0 in the city of Bergheim
5.1 in the city of Radevormwald
4.5 in the city of Dormagen
4.3 in the city of Gelsenkirchen
4.0 in the city of Leverkusen
What can the opposition do?
The results shows that a viable political opposition to multiculturalism is developing in Germany. Compare it to the increasing strength of localist parties in The Netherlands in the late 90ies. This development paved the way for the results of Pim Fortuyn and Geert Wilders between 2001 and 2009.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Freedom Party recruits local politicians in two cities
Recruiting politicians by political parties
An important function of a political party is the recruitment and vetting of politicians. This function is one of the cornerstones of the party political system that has characterized Dutch politics since the late 19th century. Political parties in Europe are increasingly finding it difficult to attract quality candidates and the level of politicians is conspiciously falling. All Dutch parties combined have about 300,000 members, which is 2.6 percent of the electorate. Ten percent or 30,000 of them are active members and amongst these the 12,000 political offices and 15,000 party political positions are distributed. Nearly every active political party member has some kind of job! Any political party that wants to leave its mark, must not only win votes, but also find thousands of candidates to staff the administrative and political machine of the Dutch state. A new succesful party attracts nutters and opportunists, which is a big risk to a controversial right-wing party that faces a hostile media. But there is no way around it. Or is there?
The Freedom Party is recruiting slowly
Mr. Geert Wilders' Freedom Party (PVV) is recruiting and vetting its aspiring politicians very securely. All recruited politicians are vetted by Geert Wilders personally. The PVV announced this weekend that they recruited enough local politicians to contest the 2010 municipal elections in The Hague and Almere. both cities have high probabilities of victory. In the 400 plus other villages, towns and cities of the Netherlands the PVV will field no candidates. Mr. Geert Wilders stated:
It is his stated strategy to recruit politicians to first staff his parliamentary and party fraction after the 2010 parliamentary elections. Next he must be ready for the 2011 provincial elections and field candidates for the provincial chambers. These in turn appoint senators to the Dutch Senate. When everything goes well the Freedom Party will then have significant clout in the legislature and be able to influence policy. The PVV received a lot of Flak from the media and politicians like Greens Femke Halsma, who accussed the PVV of "abandoning its voters".
A low risk, high yield strategy
Despite the Flak the road that the Freedom Party will take is clear. They will take as little risk as possible in the next two years and still reach for the pinnacle of power. Afterwards they will be able to take time and recruit candidates for the municipalities.
An important function of a political party is the recruitment and vetting of politicians. This function is one of the cornerstones of the party political system that has characterized Dutch politics since the late 19th century. Political parties in Europe are increasingly finding it difficult to attract quality candidates and the level of politicians is conspiciously falling. All Dutch parties combined have about 300,000 members, which is 2.6 percent of the electorate. Ten percent or 30,000 of them are active members and amongst these the 12,000 political offices and 15,000 party political positions are distributed. Nearly every active political party member has some kind of job! Any political party that wants to leave its mark, must not only win votes, but also find thousands of candidates to staff the administrative and political machine of the Dutch state. A new succesful party attracts nutters and opportunists, which is a big risk to a controversial right-wing party that faces a hostile media. But there is no way around it. Or is there?
The Freedom Party is recruiting slowly
Mr. Geert Wilders' Freedom Party (PVV) is recruiting and vetting its aspiring politicians very securely. All recruited politicians are vetted by Geert Wilders personally. The PVV announced this weekend that they recruited enough local politicians to contest the 2010 municipal elections in The Hague and Almere. both cities have high probabilities of victory. In the 400 plus other villages, towns and cities of the Netherlands the PVV will field no candidates. Mr. Geert Wilders stated:
We have not found enough people that I am willing to vouch for.Mr. Wilders wants to avoid a repeat of the 2001 LPF-fiasco, when the late Mr. Fortuyn's party went under in squabbling of its upstart members. Remarkably the PVV is not only not running in Amsterdam, the Dutch capital. But also not in Rotterdam, where there is massive dissaffection with the Multicultural society, as evidenced in the strength of the remainder of Fortuyn's old Rotterdam Party, Leefbaar Rotterdam (LR). Mr. Marco Pastors (Dutch), the leader of LR, was relieved and remarked:
He [Wilders] would have taken many seats in the case of Rotterdam elections. But he knows that nutty councilmen would destroy everything in the national elections. He kept a cool head.Wilders' strategy: straight for the jugular!
It is his stated strategy to recruit politicians to first staff his parliamentary and party fraction after the 2010 parliamentary elections. Next he must be ready for the 2011 provincial elections and field candidates for the provincial chambers. These in turn appoint senators to the Dutch Senate. When everything goes well the Freedom Party will then have significant clout in the legislature and be able to influence policy. The PVV received a lot of Flak from the media and politicians like Greens Femke Halsma, who accussed the PVV of "abandoning its voters".
A low risk, high yield strategy
Despite the Flak the road that the Freedom Party will take is clear. They will take as little risk as possible in the next two years and still reach for the pinnacle of power. Afterwards they will be able to take time and recruit candidates for the municipalities.
Friday, June 05, 2009
A fifth seat for the Freedom Party?
Will the Freedom Party be second?
Press agency ANP reported that Geert Wilders' Freedom Party (PVV) may get a fifth seat in the European Parliament (EP). It was widely reported that the PVV stood at 4 seats. But the latest results show more gains for the PVV.
The Christian-Democrats (CDA) still stand at 5 seats. If the PVV gets 5 seats they will be equally large as the CDA and they will be equal to what used to be the biggest Dutch party in the EU parliament. All the other Dutch parties will be smaller than the PVV in Europe.
This may serve as a constant reminder to all the Europhile politicians that there is a strong undercurrent of hostility to greater power to the EU and its institutions.
Voter turnout and legitimacy of the EP
The voter turnout was not impressive. In The Netherlands around 36-37 percent of those eligible to vote, did. This alone should make the legitimacy of the EP, which passes around 80 percent of all legislation of the EU member states, questionable.
Turkey's membership of the EU
The PVV will be able to voice its opposition to allowing Turkey in the EU. It is essential that this country be stopped. Membership of the EU would mean free access of Turkeys 70 million citizens to Europe's Housing and Labour markets. With Turkey's double digit unemployment this would mean a dangerous reinforcement of the existing Turkish and Muslim communities in Europe's towns and cities. Turkey would be the second biggest nation in the EU, measured by population.
Wilders has categorically stated that Turkey can not be a member of the EU. Because it is a Muslim country.
That message must continually be restated in the EP.
Press agency ANP reported that Geert Wilders' Freedom Party (PVV) may get a fifth seat in the European Parliament (EP). It was widely reported that the PVV stood at 4 seats. But the latest results show more gains for the PVV.
The Christian-Democrats (CDA) still stand at 5 seats. If the PVV gets 5 seats they will be equally large as the CDA and they will be equal to what used to be the biggest Dutch party in the EU parliament. All the other Dutch parties will be smaller than the PVV in Europe.
This may serve as a constant reminder to all the Europhile politicians that there is a strong undercurrent of hostility to greater power to the EU and its institutions.
Voter turnout and legitimacy of the EP
The voter turnout was not impressive. In The Netherlands around 36-37 percent of those eligible to vote, did. This alone should make the legitimacy of the EP, which passes around 80 percent of all legislation of the EU member states, questionable.
Turkey's membership of the EU
The PVV will be able to voice its opposition to allowing Turkey in the EU. It is essential that this country be stopped. Membership of the EU would mean free access of Turkeys 70 million citizens to Europe's Housing and Labour markets. With Turkey's double digit unemployment this would mean a dangerous reinforcement of the existing Turkish and Muslim communities in Europe's towns and cities. Turkey would be the second biggest nation in the EU, measured by population.
Wilders has categorically stated that Turkey can not be a member of the EU. Because it is a Muslim country.
That message must continually be restated in the EP.
Thursday, June 04, 2009
Geert Wilders' Freedom Party comes as Second in EU elections
Dutch provisional election results
Election results come in earlier in The Netherlands than in other European countries.
The provisional election results have been calculated in The Netherlands. The Netherlands has 25 seats in the European Parliament (EP). It looks like the Christian Democrats (CDA) are number one. They stood at 7 seats and go to 5 seats. Geert Wilders' Freedom Party (PVV) is second. From zero (0) seats to 4 seats.
Icing on the cake: the Dutch Labour Party is the biggest loser!
Election results come in earlier in The Netherlands than in other European countries.
The provisional election results have been calculated in The Netherlands. The Netherlands has 25 seats in the European Parliament (EP). It looks like the Christian Democrats (CDA) are number one. They stood at 7 seats and go to 5 seats. Geert Wilders' Freedom Party (PVV) is second. From zero (0) seats to 4 seats.
Icing on the cake: the Dutch Labour Party is the biggest loser!
Tuesday, February 13, 2007
Abolishing The Netherlands: a new blueprint
The nitty - gritty of multiparty democracy
Because The Netherlands has a multiparty system its electoral politics are considerably more complicated than those of countries like the UK or USA.
After the national elections on 22 November 2006 it turned out that the political landscape had fragmented. The "national consensus" has broken up and parties that oppose the weakening of the national state by granting power to supra-national organisations such as the EU strengthened. This happened on the Left where the socialist SP gained. And on the Right where the hardline Conservative PVV Freedom Party appeared in a strength: 9 seats. The centrist EU aligned parties weakened.
It is not so that immediately after the election a new government can take power. In a multi-party system government is by coalition, and coalitions are alliances. Alliances may require time to be put together.
The agreement or 4 year plan
Since the 1980ies Dutch coalitions prepare their 4 year government stint carefully. Politically important matters are covered in an agreement called "regeeraccoord". The previously agreed "regeeraccoord" is almost a blueprint for the government during the reign of a coalition. Parliament is reduced to rubberstamping laws that result from this agreement for the next 4 years, unless the goverment falls.
Because of the sheer difficulty of creating an agreement that looks 4 years in the future, putting together a coalition takes months. Right now a coalition of Christian Democrats, Labour and Christian Union has been put together. An agreement has been sussed out and has duly been leaked to the press.
Talking heads
It is now time to put heads on the agreement. J.P. Balkenende who has been in charge since 2002 will the new premier. The leaders of Labour and the Christian Union, Wouter Bos and André Rouvoet will both be Vice-Premiers, causing addition instability in this coalition.
Ministers and block votes
And then it is time to look at the ministers.
In the municipal elections of March 2006 the increased power of the immigrant voting blocks in the major cities came to the fore. Parties need popular immigrants in order to attract these voting blocks. It is the Left which gets 99 percent of these immigrant votes. So they have to appoint Aldermen and Ministers in order to show to the immigrant colonists that their voted have not gone unheeded.
The buzz of this phase of the 2006 election coalition formation is that the Minister of Intergration will be no other than: Achmed Aboutaleb, the Amsterdam Alderman(Dutch).
Achmed Aboutaleb
Achmed Aboutaleb was born in Beni Sidel in Morocco on 1961. He emigrated to The Netherlands at the age of 15, where he succesfully completed the Polytechnic (HTS).
He became a journalist and was scouted by a prominent Dutch feminist and Labour politician whose spokesman he became. Afterwards he became director of FORUM a multicultural institute which is funded by government subsidies.
The Dutch political class loses control of the cities
After the attack on the USA by Al-Qaeda in 2001 there was widespread unrest in The Netherlands with strong hostility between the ethnic Dutch and joyful Muslim immigrant communities. During this time Labour mayors in the big cities, with large immigrant populations realised they have no access to their voters, who are Muslims and whose heartstrings are pulled by their religion and ethnic affections. Mayor Cohen of Amsterdam visited mosques in Amsterdam together with Fatima Elatik a Moroccan politician in local Amsterdam politics (Stadsdeelraad Zeeburg). Mrs. Elatik does not have the necessary gravitas to represent Labour though.
When a Amsterdam Labour politician (Rob "F###ingMoroccans" Oudkerk) made a slip an opening appeared in the Amsterdam Labour hierarchie. At roughly the same time Theo van Gogh was assasinated by Mohammed Bouyeri. Aboutaleb took charge and moved into Oudkerk's slot. He became a prominent member of the Amsterdam Labour clique. His position was confirmed after the 7 March 2006 elections, when he received a massive block vote from Moroccan, Turkish and other Muslims.
He is now being mentioned for a position as a Minister or Deputy Minister on the Intergration and Immigration Ministry, the old ministry of Rita Verdonk. But Mr. Bos, the leader of Labour wrote in a book written to assist the 2006 election campaign that he would like to have Aboutaleb on the Ministry of Education, rather than on Immigration. So it is unclear where he will pop up.
Throwing the city gates wide open
To make matters worse the coalition agreement mentions amnesty for failed asylum seekers, no obstacles to family reunification and a special program to allow "seasonal migrants" from Africa and Asia to work in The Netherlands. This is in addition to the open borders policy for Eastern Europeans. In effect the 2006 coalition agreement abolishes The Netherlands by willful abrogation of control over its borders, a control that had been more or less regained after the 2002 "Fortuyn" elections. 50.000 asylum seekers who failed to gain aylum because they did not qualify will be given full asylum seekers status leading to citizenship. And chain immigration of their relatives in due course which will explode their numbers and power.
The pro-ethnic lobby crosses party lines
There is broad support for Aboutaleb as a minister. Christian Democratic leaders petitioned the national leadership to appoint at least one Muslim minister. Currying favour of the strengthening immigrant vote, while leaving the doors wide open to further immigration and a further strengthening of the voting block not under the control of ethnic Dutch politicians. These people are willfully digging their own demise, which is their privilege.
But do they have to drag us, their people, with them?
Because The Netherlands has a multiparty system its electoral politics are considerably more complicated than those of countries like the UK or USA.
After the national elections on 22 November 2006 it turned out that the political landscape had fragmented. The "national consensus" has broken up and parties that oppose the weakening of the national state by granting power to supra-national organisations such as the EU strengthened. This happened on the Left where the socialist SP gained. And on the Right where the hardline Conservative PVV Freedom Party appeared in a strength: 9 seats. The centrist EU aligned parties weakened.
It is not so that immediately after the election a new government can take power. In a multi-party system government is by coalition, and coalitions are alliances. Alliances may require time to be put together.
The agreement or 4 year plan
Since the 1980ies Dutch coalitions prepare their 4 year government stint carefully. Politically important matters are covered in an agreement called "regeeraccoord". The previously agreed "regeeraccoord" is almost a blueprint for the government during the reign of a coalition. Parliament is reduced to rubberstamping laws that result from this agreement for the next 4 years, unless the goverment falls.
Because of the sheer difficulty of creating an agreement that looks 4 years in the future, putting together a coalition takes months. Right now a coalition of Christian Democrats, Labour and Christian Union has been put together. An agreement has been sussed out and has duly been leaked to the press.
Talking heads
It is now time to put heads on the agreement. J.P. Balkenende who has been in charge since 2002 will the new premier. The leaders of Labour and the Christian Union, Wouter Bos and André Rouvoet will both be Vice-Premiers, causing addition instability in this coalition.
Ministers and block votes
And then it is time to look at the ministers.
In the municipal elections of March 2006 the increased power of the immigrant voting blocks in the major cities came to the fore. Parties need popular immigrants in order to attract these voting blocks. It is the Left which gets 99 percent of these immigrant votes. So they have to appoint Aldermen and Ministers in order to show to the immigrant colonists that their voted have not gone unheeded.
The buzz of this phase of the 2006 election coalition formation is that the Minister of Intergration will be no other than: Achmed Aboutaleb, the Amsterdam Alderman(Dutch).
Achmed Aboutaleb
Achmed Aboutaleb was born in Beni Sidel in Morocco on 1961. He emigrated to The Netherlands at the age of 15, where he succesfully completed the Polytechnic (HTS).
He became a journalist and was scouted by a prominent Dutch feminist and Labour politician whose spokesman he became. Afterwards he became director of FORUM a multicultural institute which is funded by government subsidies.
The Dutch political class loses control of the cities
After the attack on the USA by Al-Qaeda in 2001 there was widespread unrest in The Netherlands with strong hostility between the ethnic Dutch and joyful Muslim immigrant communities. During this time Labour mayors in the big cities, with large immigrant populations realised they have no access to their voters, who are Muslims and whose heartstrings are pulled by their religion and ethnic affections. Mayor Cohen of Amsterdam visited mosques in Amsterdam together with Fatima Elatik a Moroccan politician in local Amsterdam politics (Stadsdeelraad Zeeburg). Mrs. Elatik does not have the necessary gravitas to represent Labour though.
When a Amsterdam Labour politician (Rob "F###ingMoroccans" Oudkerk) made a slip an opening appeared in the Amsterdam Labour hierarchie. At roughly the same time Theo van Gogh was assasinated by Mohammed Bouyeri. Aboutaleb took charge and moved into Oudkerk's slot. He became a prominent member of the Amsterdam Labour clique. His position was confirmed after the 7 March 2006 elections, when he received a massive block vote from Moroccan, Turkish and other Muslims.
He is now being mentioned for a position as a Minister or Deputy Minister on the Intergration and Immigration Ministry, the old ministry of Rita Verdonk. But Mr. Bos, the leader of Labour wrote in a book written to assist the 2006 election campaign that he would like to have Aboutaleb on the Ministry of Education, rather than on Immigration. So it is unclear where he will pop up.
Throwing the city gates wide open
To make matters worse the coalition agreement mentions amnesty for failed asylum seekers, no obstacles to family reunification and a special program to allow "seasonal migrants" from Africa and Asia to work in The Netherlands. This is in addition to the open borders policy for Eastern Europeans. In effect the 2006 coalition agreement abolishes The Netherlands by willful abrogation of control over its borders, a control that had been more or less regained after the 2002 "Fortuyn" elections. 50.000 asylum seekers who failed to gain aylum because they did not qualify will be given full asylum seekers status leading to citizenship. And chain immigration of their relatives in due course which will explode their numbers and power.
The pro-ethnic lobby crosses party lines
There is broad support for Aboutaleb as a minister. Christian Democratic leaders petitioned the national leadership to appoint at least one Muslim minister. Currying favour of the strengthening immigrant vote, while leaving the doors wide open to further immigration and a further strengthening of the voting block not under the control of ethnic Dutch politicians. These people are willfully digging their own demise, which is their privilege.
But do they have to drag us, their people, with them?
Tuesday, November 28, 2006
Last week's elections in The Netherlands
A round up of commentary on the Dutch elections last week (22 November) plus my own take:
Round-up:
Brussels Journal: Pat Buchanan wins Dutch elections
Kleinverzet: The Ghost of Pim Fortuyn
The elections saw the centre parties, Labour, Liberal-Conservatives, Democrats66 weakened.
On the sides maoist Socialist Party (SP) of Jan Marrijnissen and on the Right the Freedom Party (PVV) of Geert wilders gained seats. SP got 25 (+16) and Freedom Party got 9 (+9).
Brussels Journal goes deeper into the background of the winning Socialist Party. The SP is Anti-Europe and regards Western, Christian culture the bedrock of Dutch society.
Kleinverzet argues that the SP are Communists, who believe in the Leftist message that the State is the answer to all woes. By contrast the old Labour Party does not believe in its message anymore. Because the voters are looking for strong leaders, they vote for those who believe in their own message.
My take:
Brussels Journal and Kleinverzet are correct. SP is both hardline leftist and pro-Western, which is an unusual combination in the West, where most Leftist Parties are Multiculturalists and therefore Anti-Western. It is also a clear vote against the EU of the transnational elites and Eurabia.
The Anti-Immigrant and Anti-Islamic stance of the electorate is further made clear by the PVV of Geert Wilders gaining 9 seats. This is a remarkable result and shows the organisational acumen and ability of Geert Wilders to communicate with his voter base. There were two other Fortuynist remnants dating back to the 2002 elections which failed to gain enough votes for one (1) seat.
The gain of Wilders (former Liberal-Conservative VVD: party of Ayaan and Verdonk) is even more remarkable when we look at the number of votes Rita Verdonk got. 600.000! Out of slightly less than 10 million votes. She even got 60.000 more than Party leader Mark Rutte. Verdonk has a strong anti-immigrant and anti-Islam profile. 600.000 votes is sufficient for 9 seats, while VVD got 22. So more than a third of the voters of that party disagree with immigration and multiculturalism. The VVD will see instability in the years to come. Party leader Mark Rutte is not strong enough to lead the party and Verdonk simply lacks the talent to run a Anti-Multicultural political platform against the entire system. There will be good hunting grounds here for Geert Wilders. Henk Kamp, the current defense Minister and third man of the VVD may well be the man to get the ship out of the shallows and sailing again.
Under the present circumstances it will be difficult to put a coalition together for a government. The coalition that can be formed will be unstable and probably be under the leadership of Christian Democrat Balkenende, not a strong and capable political leader.
So expect new elections within 4 years. Invest in shares of companies selling voting booths or canned food or shotguns.
Round-up:
Brussels Journal: Pat Buchanan wins Dutch elections
Kleinverzet: The Ghost of Pim Fortuyn
The elections saw the centre parties, Labour, Liberal-Conservatives, Democrats66 weakened.
On the sides maoist Socialist Party (SP) of Jan Marrijnissen and on the Right the Freedom Party (PVV) of Geert wilders gained seats. SP got 25 (+16) and Freedom Party got 9 (+9).
Brussels Journal goes deeper into the background of the winning Socialist Party. The SP is Anti-Europe and regards Western, Christian culture the bedrock of Dutch society.
Kleinverzet argues that the SP are Communists, who believe in the Leftist message that the State is the answer to all woes. By contrast the old Labour Party does not believe in its message anymore. Because the voters are looking for strong leaders, they vote for those who believe in their own message.
My take:
Brussels Journal and Kleinverzet are correct. SP is both hardline leftist and pro-Western, which is an unusual combination in the West, where most Leftist Parties are Multiculturalists and therefore Anti-Western. It is also a clear vote against the EU of the transnational elites and Eurabia.
The Anti-Immigrant and Anti-Islamic stance of the electorate is further made clear by the PVV of Geert Wilders gaining 9 seats. This is a remarkable result and shows the organisational acumen and ability of Geert Wilders to communicate with his voter base. There were two other Fortuynist remnants dating back to the 2002 elections which failed to gain enough votes for one (1) seat.
The gain of Wilders (former Liberal-Conservative VVD: party of Ayaan and Verdonk) is even more remarkable when we look at the number of votes Rita Verdonk got. 600.000! Out of slightly less than 10 million votes. She even got 60.000 more than Party leader Mark Rutte. Verdonk has a strong anti-immigrant and anti-Islam profile. 600.000 votes is sufficient for 9 seats, while VVD got 22. So more than a third of the voters of that party disagree with immigration and multiculturalism. The VVD will see instability in the years to come. Party leader Mark Rutte is not strong enough to lead the party and Verdonk simply lacks the talent to run a Anti-Multicultural political platform against the entire system. There will be good hunting grounds here for Geert Wilders. Henk Kamp, the current defense Minister and third man of the VVD may well be the man to get the ship out of the shallows and sailing again.
Under the present circumstances it will be difficult to put a coalition together for a government. The coalition that can be formed will be unstable and probably be under the leadership of Christian Democrat Balkenende, not a strong and capable political leader.
So expect new elections within 4 years. Invest in shares of companies selling voting booths or canned food or shotguns.
Tuesday, May 09, 2006
The Church speaks out. In Australia
Cardinal George Pell has written a thoughtful piece on the confrontation between immigrant Islam and secular Australia. He enumerates the usual problematic nature of Islam, its offensive, universalist notions, its connection between violence and spirituality, its emphasis on procreation and its ability to sustain high birth rates in connection to the low Western birth rates. A most salient paragraph in my opinion is:
"These two examples show that there is a whole range of factors, some of them susceptible to influence or a change in direction, affecting the prospects for a successful Islamic engagement with democracy. Peace with respect for human rights are the most desirable end point, but the development of democracy will not necessarily achieve this or sustain it. This is an important question for the West as well as for the Muslim world. Adherence to what George Weigel has called “a thin, indeed anorexic, idea of procedural democracy”[21] can be fatal here. It is not enough to assume that giving people the vote will automatically favour moderation, in the short term at least[22]. Moderation and democracy have been regular partners in Western history, but have not entered permanent and exclusive matrimony and there is little reason for this to be better in the Muslim world, as the election results in Iran last June and the elections in Palestine in January reminded us."
"Belief in a thin, [...] procedural democracy". The idea that society, organised human life can be reduced to a simple procedure, a ritual, is one of the biggest threats of the West to itself.
There were the usual nauseating cries from the Left demanding that the Cardinal be punished for speaking out, because naturally the Left knows better and everybody disagreeing with them is an idiot who has to be silenced.
Such a nice thing that Truth has been contracted out to the Left. Saves everyone a lot of thinking for themselves.
"These two examples show that there is a whole range of factors, some of them susceptible to influence or a change in direction, affecting the prospects for a successful Islamic engagement with democracy. Peace with respect for human rights are the most desirable end point, but the development of democracy will not necessarily achieve this or sustain it. This is an important question for the West as well as for the Muslim world. Adherence to what George Weigel has called “a thin, indeed anorexic, idea of procedural democracy”[21] can be fatal here. It is not enough to assume that giving people the vote will automatically favour moderation, in the short term at least[22]. Moderation and democracy have been regular partners in Western history, but have not entered permanent and exclusive matrimony and there is little reason for this to be better in the Muslim world, as the election results in Iran last June and the elections in Palestine in January reminded us."
"Belief in a thin, [...] procedural democracy". The idea that society, organised human life can be reduced to a simple procedure, a ritual, is one of the biggest threats of the West to itself.
There were the usual nauseating cries from the Left demanding that the Cardinal be punished for speaking out, because naturally the Left knows better and everybody disagreeing with them is an idiot who has to be silenced.
Such a nice thing that Truth has been contracted out to the Left. Saves everyone a lot of thinking for themselves.
Wednesday, March 08, 2006
Municipal Elections
Yesterday there were municipal election in The Netherlands. In stead of local issues governing the election results, there was a heavy influence of national politics. The impopularity of the so-called right-wing coalition caused both the Labour Party, the Greens and the Socialist Party to grow. The Christian Democrats and the Liberal Conservatives lost heavily. Labour had kept very quiet for four years. People must have elected them due to a desire for stability in the same way people voted Christian Democrats in 2002. The shift towards the left is also indicative of a move towards Secularism, away from the faith based Christian Democrats. This trend has been going on since the 1960s.
The Socialist Party have a strong profile and they go steadily from strength to strength. Their leadership is excellent and they have been taking special care to develop their voter base and networks in blue collar worker area's in the past 20 years. They are unequivocally Pro-Western culture, which is unique within the Left nationally. This makes them ideal allies of Ayaan Hirsi Ali, but she has chosen for the Liberal-Conservative VVD, which is not a good match.
They are also popular amongst the cognoscenti and literati, the pundit caste, which improves their media exposure at no expense. They will be a force to be reckoned with in the future.
The Greens performed less impressively due to weak leadership. They are environmental yuppies and push an impossible combination of favouring large scale immigration and environmentalism. They are so enamoured of these irreconcilable good intentions that they choose to remain oblivious of this fact. Their leader is a pretty lady. She is smart but she has neither strength nor insight.
The Christian Democrats see their voting base in the country side further eroding. The Netherlands is secularising and the trend bodes ill for them. The Left is gaining strength in the South and has already a strong presence in the North. Only the East is remaining strongly Christian politically.
The Liberal-Conservatives had a poor showing. The trend for them should be positive due to the continuing growing affluence of the Dutch mainstream. However lately they seem to be struggling and they suffer from increasing right-wing competition and weak leadership and cadre. I did not vote for them this time due to their Amsterdam proposal to close bars which discriminate. This is another ploy to increase State power.
Rotterdam. The city where Fortuyn made his devastating appearance in 2002. Marko Pastors, the party leader showed himself to be a very good administrator and politician and a right-winger. The man makes no mistakes but lacks the charisma of Pim Fortuyn. Good news overall I think. The Liveable Rotterdam party lost a little but remained a dominant party. They will leave the coalition and become an opposition party. This means that they will have time to re-establish the contact with the voter base and to strengthen party cadre, following the example of the Socialist Party 20 years ago.
Labour regained a bit of their strength in Rotterdam. This means the end of the present Rightwing coalition in that city.
In Amsterdam the Labour Party carried the whole city. All the Boroughs are Labour's. There will be a Left-Wing coalition instead of the present business friendly Labour-Liberal Conservative coalition. Job Cohen the Labour Mayor said in effect: "we have to be VERY carefull not to become arrogant and this victory is in fact too big".
These victories are indeed a curse for Labour. Labour does not believe in Socialism. They say they have an ideology but they are utterly empty. They want coalitions with Conservative Parties, so they can execute watered down Right-wing programs. They will tell their ideologically committed cadres that the coalition partners "made them do it". Now being forced into Left-wing coalitions they are going to have to agree on policies they do not believe in. It will be a joy to see them squirm in the next few years. And they tragically lack the law-and-order instinct that the electorate wants to see.
Brussels Journal gives the origin of the Leftist victories in the cities:
"According to the Institute for Migration and Ethnic Studies of the University of Amsterdam 80% of the non-indigenous electorate voted for Labour. This explains why cities such as Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Breda and Arnhem succumbed to the Left. 84% of the Turks voted for the PvdA; 81% of the Antillians/Surinamese did likewise. Of the Moroccans 78% voted Labour and 12% voted Green Left.
The center-right VVD, the party of famous Dutch policians such as Ayaan Hirsi Ali and Frits Bolkestein, received only 1% of the immigrant vote. The CDA got 3%, the SP 5% and Green Left 7%."
During the previous municipal elections the minorities did not show up for voting. Obviously they have corrected that. It gives new meaning to: "the government has elected a new people".
I think the municipal trend will also be the national trend in 2007. The present Right-wing coalition is doing great work both on slowing immigration and on Liberalising the economy. But large parts of the electorate outside the cities are not affected by the Multicultural society and want to hold on to a welfare society, which is impossible. On this the Right-wing message will be a very hard sell. But it has to be done, because it is the right thing to do. The secular Right wing lacks good cadres but has a message that goes with the Zeitgeist. The Christian Democrats have an excellent cadre, but its message is sadly unpopular these days. It will only get worse. The Right-wing is lacking in Reagan or Pim Fortuyn style Great Communicators. Maybe someone will come along.
Building, building, building local networks and cadres should be the motto for the Secular Right in the next few years. And harvest season will surely come.
The Socialist Party have a strong profile and they go steadily from strength to strength. Their leadership is excellent and they have been taking special care to develop their voter base and networks in blue collar worker area's in the past 20 years. They are unequivocally Pro-Western culture, which is unique within the Left nationally. This makes them ideal allies of Ayaan Hirsi Ali, but she has chosen for the Liberal-Conservative VVD, which is not a good match.
They are also popular amongst the cognoscenti and literati, the pundit caste, which improves their media exposure at no expense. They will be a force to be reckoned with in the future.
The Greens performed less impressively due to weak leadership. They are environmental yuppies and push an impossible combination of favouring large scale immigration and environmentalism. They are so enamoured of these irreconcilable good intentions that they choose to remain oblivious of this fact. Their leader is a pretty lady. She is smart but she has neither strength nor insight.
The Christian Democrats see their voting base in the country side further eroding. The Netherlands is secularising and the trend bodes ill for them. The Left is gaining strength in the South and has already a strong presence in the North. Only the East is remaining strongly Christian politically.
The Liberal-Conservatives had a poor showing. The trend for them should be positive due to the continuing growing affluence of the Dutch mainstream. However lately they seem to be struggling and they suffer from increasing right-wing competition and weak leadership and cadre. I did not vote for them this time due to their Amsterdam proposal to close bars which discriminate. This is another ploy to increase State power.
Rotterdam. The city where Fortuyn made his devastating appearance in 2002. Marko Pastors, the party leader showed himself to be a very good administrator and politician and a right-winger. The man makes no mistakes but lacks the charisma of Pim Fortuyn. Good news overall I think. The Liveable Rotterdam party lost a little but remained a dominant party. They will leave the coalition and become an opposition party. This means that they will have time to re-establish the contact with the voter base and to strengthen party cadre, following the example of the Socialist Party 20 years ago.
Labour regained a bit of their strength in Rotterdam. This means the end of the present Rightwing coalition in that city.
In Amsterdam the Labour Party carried the whole city. All the Boroughs are Labour's. There will be a Left-Wing coalition instead of the present business friendly Labour-Liberal Conservative coalition. Job Cohen the Labour Mayor said in effect: "we have to be VERY carefull not to become arrogant and this victory is in fact too big".
These victories are indeed a curse for Labour. Labour does not believe in Socialism. They say they have an ideology but they are utterly empty. They want coalitions with Conservative Parties, so they can execute watered down Right-wing programs. They will tell their ideologically committed cadres that the coalition partners "made them do it". Now being forced into Left-wing coalitions they are going to have to agree on policies they do not believe in. It will be a joy to see them squirm in the next few years. And they tragically lack the law-and-order instinct that the electorate wants to see.
Brussels Journal gives the origin of the Leftist victories in the cities:
"According to the Institute for Migration and Ethnic Studies of the University of Amsterdam 80% of the non-indigenous electorate voted for Labour. This explains why cities such as Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Breda and Arnhem succumbed to the Left. 84% of the Turks voted for the PvdA; 81% of the Antillians/Surinamese did likewise. Of the Moroccans 78% voted Labour and 12% voted Green Left.
The center-right VVD, the party of famous Dutch policians such as Ayaan Hirsi Ali and Frits Bolkestein, received only 1% of the immigrant vote. The CDA got 3%, the SP 5% and Green Left 7%."
During the previous municipal elections the minorities did not show up for voting. Obviously they have corrected that. It gives new meaning to: "the government has elected a new people".
I think the municipal trend will also be the national trend in 2007. The present Right-wing coalition is doing great work both on slowing immigration and on Liberalising the economy. But large parts of the electorate outside the cities are not affected by the Multicultural society and want to hold on to a welfare society, which is impossible. On this the Right-wing message will be a very hard sell. But it has to be done, because it is the right thing to do. The secular Right wing lacks good cadres but has a message that goes with the Zeitgeist. The Christian Democrats have an excellent cadre, but its message is sadly unpopular these days. It will only get worse. The Right-wing is lacking in Reagan or Pim Fortuyn style Great Communicators. Maybe someone will come along.
Building, building, building local networks and cadres should be the motto for the Secular Right in the next few years. And harvest season will surely come.
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