US Financial Decline

Jon Stewart of the Daily show used last Thursday's January 20th episode to put a humoristic twist on the increasing financial power of China and what it does to US' superpower status.

(Relevant part starts about 30 seconds in the clip)

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The US owes China alone one trillion US Dollars which is about 7 percent of the US GNP. European and other countries depending on US political and military support better look around for a new protector. US support is contingent on the Chinese People's Republic approval.

Africa in Asia and Africa in Europe compared

High flying African drugdealers

In my yesterday article "Africa in Europe" this blog delt with the behaviour of groups of immigrants. I stated that behaviour could best be explained by looking to their cultures of origin, rather than looking at the Western countries where they have settled. I will further illustrate this by taking a closer look at one of the killings in Zuidoost neighbourhood of Amsterdam. This concerned a drugsdealer, "Zubi", who jumped from a balcony when police was invading his appartment. "Zubi", an Ibo from Nigeria (Dutch) had a connection with the chief of his tribe in Nigeria and was a conduit for cocaine in Amsterdam. Police found 25 bags of cocaine in the flat, plus a bag full of little smuggler balls of cocaine, plus half a big bin bag of cocaine in his appartment.

Racial solidarity trumps all for Blacks

"Zubi" died when he landed on the ground outside the high rise where he lived. The result were demonstrations by Blacks in Zuidoost, accusing the police of "racism" and a "hunt for blacks" (Dutch). The blacks shamelessy come to the aid of their fellow blacks even though in this case the "brother" in question killed himself and was a high ranking gangster. And they have the temerity to accuse the police of "racism"!

Liberals are quick to blame ethnic Dutchmen for what happened here. In an article in "Het Parool" Albert de Lange, a Dutch journalist features Tom Marfo, a Ghanese Reverend (Dutch), who explains that the drugdealer jumped because he feared deportation. If only the Dutch would stop deporting illegals, tragedies like these would not happen is the subtext of the article. This message is in accordance with Mr. Auster's First Law of Majority - Minority relations:

The worse any designated minority or alien group behaves in a liberal society, the bigger become the lies of Political Correctness in covering up for that group.

Do Blacks only jump and riot in liberal Europe? The answer is no as shown by a story on the Star (HT Mr. Auster): Africans in the Chinese city of Guangzhou.

At a busy intersection in the heart of this southern city recently, angry Africans carried a bleeding black man, held aloft, across eight lanes of heavy traffic to deposit him smack at a police station's door.

Almost immediately hundreds of other Africans converged on the station--shouting for the police to come out and take responsibility.

The wounded man's name was Emmanuel Okoro of Nigeria.

Trapped in a police raid on illegal immigrants that afternoon, Okoro chose to leap from the second floor of a shopping mall rather than be arrested.

He landed on his head.

Now, as he lay unconscious on the station's doorstep, angry protestors fanned out into the street--blocking traffic, ripping up plants, waving tree limbs and denouncing the police.

It took six hours to restore order.

We see here Africans in China exhibiting exactly the same behaviour as Africans in Zuidoost.

Laws live in populations

It proves that the behaviour of this group can best be explained by the origin of the group and not by the nation and culture where they have settled. In The Netherlands the law is that if an Alien legally resides in country for three years he can apply for citizensship. However, very few immigrants truly become citizens, their behaviour remains locked in patterns established in the culture were they originated. They are not significantly affected by the laws and culture of their adoptive country. The Chinese accept this and act accordingly. They expell the Africans after their visa expire.

Ojukwu Emma of the Nigerian Community in China says he and the Nigerian embassy are working on an agreement with local authorities to provide exit visas for Nigerians whose visas have expired and who wish to return home. If formalized, it would allow Nigerians to leave China within 10 days, without threat of detention.

However, the ingrained Liberalism of Europeans makes it very difficult for them to do so and illegal immigrants are seldomly expelled. On the other hand, the comments under the articles in the Dutch press show that hardly any of the commenters fall for the spiel of the liberal reporters.

The laws of group behaviour

In conclusion I state that the laws which govern group behaviour originate in cultures. As a shorthand: "Laws live in populations, not in territories". Liberals have a problem in dealing with this reality. It goes against their central tenet: "The law of equality trumps every other law".


Practical recommendations flowing from correct understanding of reality

Serious conservatives ought to be firm in dealing with this liberal inability to deal with the reality of human inequality. Religions, nations and cultures are unequal. It should not be a crime to state this, as it is now. This important truth should be the basis for policy decisions. The policy with regards to foreigners of different cultures should be not to allow them to settle in The West. If they already have settled their permits should not be renewed. Should they be in the West illegally they must be tracked down and expelled. If they have citizenship or resident status and commit serious crimes, they should be expelled as well. If the Chinese can do it, so can we!

US power is faltering

In the 1920ies and 1930ies world power moved from Europe (Great Britain) West accross the Atlantic. It was not until the 1950ies that everybody understood that European power had collapsed and that the USA was racing ahead. The 1956 Suez crisis caused the world to realise what the new power realities were. Exit Europe. All eyes on the USA and the new contender, Soviet Russia and world communism.

Right now we can see a similar power shift. In the stage of the 1920ies and 1930ies shift of power, when the UK needed US capital to develop the economies of its empire in the Middle East and Asia. The new global financial power is China. And it has started to openly flex its muscle: "Two Chinese officials at leading Communist Party bodies have given interviews in recent days warning, for the first time, that Beijing may use its $1,330bn (£658bn) of foreign reserves as a political weapon to counter pressure from the US Congress. Shifts in Chinese policy are often announced through key think tanks and academies."

And a key US Policy maker is taking heed (HT Parapundit). David Walker, comptroller general of the US recently warned:

"The US government is on a ‘burning platform’ of unsustainable policies and practices with fiscal deficits, chronic healthcare underfunding, immigration and overseas military commitments threatening a crisis if action is not taken soon"

The fiscal imbalance meant the US was “on a path toward an explosion of debt”.

The recent waves made by the US sub-prime mortgage crisis only underscore the words of the US comptroller general. European and Asian banks are underwriting US consumption. The US saving rate is close to zero. The US does not have the capital to develop its own infrastructures, let alone the infrastructures of societies in the Middle East. Moreover unfettered Third World immigration is straining US education, transport, health and many other infrastructures. Its economy is strongly consumption driven and this consumption is fuelled by credit. Meanwhile China is sitting on a mountainous treasure, much like Fafnir, Sigurd's Dragon.

The US government and the Federal Reserve must make economies. But these cutbacks will cause a recession and unemployment. Together with a disastrious foreign war this will make US internal politics unstable and depressed in the next decade. Think of the post-Vietnam era, but then much worse.

After 1990, the US was the only power and we lived in uni-polar world. We are moving back into a bi-polar world and I would expect local powers to become restless as well. Similar to what happened in the 1920ies when Japan and Germany tried to fill the British power vacuum with military adventurism and warrior ideologies.

Countries that could play such a role are Iran, Turkey and Egypt, for the Middle East. Iran has already allied itself in the SCO with Russia and China for such a role.

A strengthening Anti-American coalition

The response to the terror attack on New York in 2001 was the US-led invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. Both countries were not able to resist the US military superiority and succumbed to occupation.

Both however are massive liabilities to the US, eating away resources.

The ruling elites of Non-Western nations looked on in initial alarm at the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. Their fear was for their own hides in case the US might try something similar with their own nations, removing the elites from power and bringing Iraq-style disorder to their nations.

Already before the war in the Middle East there was concern in China and Russia about US-hegemonism. In order to strengthen themselves these nations, which are growing in economic and societal power and centeredness started to improve their co-operation.

Initially the co-operation took the form of weapons sales by the cash-starved Russians to the Chinese, plus the transfer of military technology to the Chinese military. Later the co-operation was solidified in the form of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO), a formal alliance with a permanent secretariat and staff, based in the capital of China. Kazakhastan, Kyrgystan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan also became members of the alliance.

Important goals of the alliance is furthering trade between the member states and the fight against terrorism against the member states. China is a dynamic economic and monetary powerhouse and an increasingly strong competitor of Western Nations. Russia is also becoming economically stronger, while it also has technological and military production strength. It furthermore has vast oil reserves, which are increasingly becoming scarce, hence the rising price of oil. The other nations in the alliance are also strong in oil and commodities, underwriting the economic expansion of the more prosperous members of SCO.

Recently Iran, India, Mongolia and Pakistan became members of SCO. This means that the alliance now borders on US occupied Afghanistan and Iraq. Four members of SCO have nuclear weapons (Russia, China, Pakistan and India). The alliance gives Iran enormous strategic depth.

The US is under pressure of the Taliban in Afghanistan. And under pressure of Sunni nationalist and Islamic groups of fighters. These groups are fighting in a highly dispersed pattern, in order to nullify the US lead in firepower.

The US forces fighting the Sunnis in and around Bagdad, the core of the Sunni demographic in Iraq are depending on a long supply line to the port city of Basra on the Persian Gulf. Astride the supply line lie the Shia villages, towns and cities. The Shias thus control US logistics. Weapons, food, spare parts, re-inforcements, fuel, medical evacuation can be turned of if the Shia Mullahs. The Shia Mullahs have been put in power by the US organised elections. And by the dismantling of the old Iraqi Army and the nationalist Baath party, which left religious and tribal groupings as the only forms of social and political organisation in Iraq.

Iran is also able to cut off oil supplies to the rest of the world due to their ability to interdict shipping when it travels through the Hormus Straits, the bottleneck for transporting Iraqi, Kuwaiti, Iranian and most of Saudi Arabia's and Gulf State oil deliveries. Just threatening the flow of oil to Asia and the West would send the oil price sky high, slowing down investment in the US economy and hurting the US labour market, which is already under pressure from out of control Mexican immigration.

The US has a technological edge over Iran, militarily. It will be able to destroy Iranian air defense easily and defeat the Iranian Army in the field. However it will run in far greater trouble than it is currently in when it tries to occupy Iran's population centres and faces a new urban guerrilla from its 68 million population.

And then the Iranians will be able to pull the plug on the US Army in Iraq's logistics lifeline and deny the world economy of its oil in a market that has no swing capacity, as in 1973.

The threats that the US have uttered against Iran on Israel's behalf are essentially empty.