Monday, March 13, 2006

More Election Analysis

Susie:
Can you tell me what the consequences of this election will be for future immigration into the Netherlands?

Snouck:
No consequences in my opinion. These were local, municipal elections. This will be decided at the national elections. My prognosis is that Labour (PvdA) will win again, nationally. So the Left will win. Only I think they will try to create a government with right-wing parties. Labour does not really believe in socialism and multiculturalism anymore is my judgement. But they keep tight lipped about it in order to maintain their hands on the immigrant vote.

Labour (PvdA) will limit immigration as well. They are doing a balancing act, trying no keep both the old Labour voters and the new immigrant voters happy. Their biggest fear is that the Leftist majority will be so big that there will be no possible of forming a coalition with a right wing party. If that happens, there will be a radical left wing government and we will be a very interesting situation. All bets are off after that, I really do not know if the country will be able to handle such a siituation for a long time. If the borders go open again and the Left will be in charge of the police and judiciary, they will run The Netherlands further into the ground, gaining more and more power in the cities, with all the immigrants.

The Fortuynist voters will be really unhappy. A part will leave. Another part may harden in their attitudes. The situation will be similar in France. Both countries may just go under, under the Islamic immigrant wave. I do not think that will happen though.

There will be a backlash against Islam, but because the democratic route to reform will be closed down it will be radical and perhaps violent. There will be an upsurge of Xenophobia, Racism, Conspiracy thinking, Anti-Islamism and Anti-Semitism. These things ussually travel in a group and not individually.

Herr Winn:
"The election results are prett much a wake-up call for the current national (right wing) coalition. They now have 14 months untill the parliamentary elections to get their story together and explain what has happened the last couple of years and how it could have been that much worse if Labour were in charge."

Snouck:
Well, that would be nice. But there is hardly anyone in either Liberal-Conservatives (VVD) or Christian-Democrats (CDA) to do it. Both parties are hard core technocratic. There is nobody to effectively take a stand against the Left. Wouter Bos, the leader of Labour (PvdA) and Jan Marrijnissen (SP) will remain silent and win votes. The question is only the magnitude of the victory and whether Labour will be able to find a right-wing partner. The economy is picking up as well. It could well be that the Left will not only win the next elections, but also the elections in 5 year, if the Bussiness Cycle will still be in the upward phase. Than we will have a Centre-Left or Extreme-Left government coalition for 8 years. And it will be in the crucial time, the time that would be essential to turn the situation from a looming crisis into a full blown crisis and surrender to Islam.

2 comments:

susie said...

You leave out the most important factor -- what do the Dutch people want??? It's still a democracy, is it not? The immigrant vote can't be much more than 10%. If the Dutch wish to die, then it is their choice.

Charles Martel said...

Snouck :
have a read of this

its a BBC documentary on Dutch muslims.

I would be interested in hearing what you have to say about it.