Osama bin Laden dead: what to do now?

Whither US policy now that OBL is dead

Now that Osama bin Laden has been declared killed by the U.S. what should be their next step?

Snouck's answer: this is a good time to declare a victory and get the hell out of the quicksands of the Middle East and Afghanistan.

However the attack Obama instigated NATO attack on Libya shows the American government has not learned that attacking Muslim countries is a bad idea. The West's greatest problem these days seems to be the inability to learn lessons, caused by the dogmatic belief in human equality.

Afghanistan: Karzai has nothing to work with

The centre cannot hold

If a country, a nation is to become one, achieve unity it needs a centre. Afghanistan, has in its history never really had national unity, it was an empire dominated by Paytans since its conception in 1770.

After the northern tribes, represented by a bunch of warlords together with the CIA and the USAF defeated the Taliban a tribal head named Karzai was made President of Afghanistan.

But Karzai does not have a power base. In the struggle between the Taliban and the pro-western Afghan "government" the only real power are the Taliban. This is brought out by a fragment of a long article on Karzai in the New York Times by Elisabeth Rubin. At some point Kabul is rocked by 6 hours of riots against foreigners and the U.S. Forces there and an abservers is quoted to say:

I felt really bad for him,” Jawed Ludin recalled. Karzai was so alone. He continued to watch the riot footage in his back room, trying to glean the plot. “I realized that, at that time, he had no dependable instrument of power,” Ludin said. “He didn’t have the money, the police, the intelligence. He had nothing.

Things fall apart.

And this in a nutshell is why the pro-western alliance in Afghanistan will fail.

German Army takes off Red Cross

(HT Politically Incorrect) Doctors and Medics take Red Cross insignia off their vehicles. The internationally recognized symbol, was created to separate life saving personnel from fighting personnel. To shield the former from attack. This symbol has become the preferred target of attacks by Muslims in Afghanistan.

US has no strategy for Afghanistan

After the attack on the WTC in 2001 the US quickly moved to invade Afghanistan. The goal was to capture Bin Laden and to eliminate and capture the Al-Qaida network which was responsable for 9-11 attack on US citizens. The US drove the Taliban government of Afghanistan into Pakistan. Then the US invaded Iraq and lost sight of its original objective.

Today the Taliban and Al-Qaida are back in force in Afghanistan and the fight they offer NATO and Pro-Karzai forces is getting more and more intensive. So what are the US and NATO forces doing in Afghanistan.

The new US President Obama asked the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Department of Defence (DoD) and he got a startling answer:

"Frankly, we don't have one."

After seven years in Afghanistan the US DoD still has no strategy!

Read more here on the US in Afghanistan.

A strengthening Anti-American coalition

The response to the terror attack on New York in 2001 was the US-led invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. Both countries were not able to resist the US military superiority and succumbed to occupation.

Both however are massive liabilities to the US, eating away resources.

The ruling elites of Non-Western nations looked on in initial alarm at the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. Their fear was for their own hides in case the US might try something similar with their own nations, removing the elites from power and bringing Iraq-style disorder to their nations.

Already before the war in the Middle East there was concern in China and Russia about US-hegemonism. In order to strengthen themselves these nations, which are growing in economic and societal power and centeredness started to improve their co-operation.

Initially the co-operation took the form of weapons sales by the cash-starved Russians to the Chinese, plus the transfer of military technology to the Chinese military. Later the co-operation was solidified in the form of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO), a formal alliance with a permanent secretariat and staff, based in the capital of China. Kazakhastan, Kyrgystan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan also became members of the alliance.

Important goals of the alliance is furthering trade between the member states and the fight against terrorism against the member states. China is a dynamic economic and monetary powerhouse and an increasingly strong competitor of Western Nations. Russia is also becoming economically stronger, while it also has technological and military production strength. It furthermore has vast oil reserves, which are increasingly becoming scarce, hence the rising price of oil. The other nations in the alliance are also strong in oil and commodities, underwriting the economic expansion of the more prosperous members of SCO.

Recently Iran, India, Mongolia and Pakistan became members of SCO. This means that the alliance now borders on US occupied Afghanistan and Iraq. Four members of SCO have nuclear weapons (Russia, China, Pakistan and India). The alliance gives Iran enormous strategic depth.

The US is under pressure of the Taliban in Afghanistan. And under pressure of Sunni nationalist and Islamic groups of fighters. These groups are fighting in a highly dispersed pattern, in order to nullify the US lead in firepower.

The US forces fighting the Sunnis in and around Bagdad, the core of the Sunni demographic in Iraq are depending on a long supply line to the port city of Basra on the Persian Gulf. Astride the supply line lie the Shia villages, towns and cities. The Shias thus control US logistics. Weapons, food, spare parts, re-inforcements, fuel, medical evacuation can be turned of if the Shia Mullahs. The Shia Mullahs have been put in power by the US organised elections. And by the dismantling of the old Iraqi Army and the nationalist Baath party, which left religious and tribal groupings as the only forms of social and political organisation in Iraq.

Iran is also able to cut off oil supplies to the rest of the world due to their ability to interdict shipping when it travels through the Hormus Straits, the bottleneck for transporting Iraqi, Kuwaiti, Iranian and most of Saudi Arabia's and Gulf State oil deliveries. Just threatening the flow of oil to Asia and the West would send the oil price sky high, slowing down investment in the US economy and hurting the US labour market, which is already under pressure from out of control Mexican immigration.

The US has a technological edge over Iran, militarily. It will be able to destroy Iranian air defense easily and defeat the Iranian Army in the field. However it will run in far greater trouble than it is currently in when it tries to occupy Iran's population centres and faces a new urban guerrilla from its 68 million population.

And then the Iranians will be able to pull the plug on the US Army in Iraq's logistics lifeline and deny the world economy of its oil in a market that has no swing capacity, as in 1973.

The threats that the US have uttered against Iran on Israel's behalf are essentially empty.

Dutch Commandos battle Taliban in Afghanistan

Dutch Commandos (Dutch) are in Afghanistan as a part of the Deployment Task Force (DTF). The region where they operate is called Uruzgan. The task of the Dutch Commando's is to prepare the way for a Dutch Army force (1.400) which will deploy in Uruzgan for 2 years as a part of the US-led efforts to fight terrorism ("The War on Terror").

The Commandos (Dutch) killed dozens of Taliban fighters in the past few months. Amongst them was also an "important leader" according to kolonel Henk Morsink, the DTF Commander.

The Dutch Commandos had 6 heavy fights with fighters in the neighbourhood of the provincial capital Tarin Kowt. The Commandos were pinned down by Afghan fighters. With helicopter gunship support (Dutch Apaches) the Commandos managed to wipe out Taliban and hostile forces.



The most likely weapon to be selected by the Apache weapons officer is the M230 30 millimeter gun.


Using the Commandos in small groups to recconnoitre (recce) the country is a nice tactic. It encourages the Taliban to group themselves in a bigger group with more fire power thus forming a target that can be engaged with a heave weapon platform such as the Apache.

The Commandos had a few hairy escapes in their encounters with the Taliban. They thank their guardian angel.

The Dutch Ministry called the mission "do able", although it is admitted to be the hairiest mission in a long time. The present governing coalition gives the mission full support, but will be replaced in 2007, before the indicated end date of the mission.

Personally I do not see the point of the mission. The Netherlands or the West has no interests in Afganistan. The mission of Nato in Afganistan is to support the US in El Jorge's Great War on Terror.

This mission is doomed to fail. Obviously the West has to respond to Al-Qaida's terror. But invading countries in the Middle East is not a way to harm Al-Qaida decisively. Western Armies in their wars in the Third World since 1945 constantly defeat the enemies they face. And they constantly fail to translate the military victories in political gains.

It is time for the West to rethink the way it wages war.

More footdragging on Afghanistan

Yesterday there was supposed to be a decision on the Afghanistan Mission. The Netherlands had already sent troops in 2003, both to Iraq and Afghanistan. Right now the decision is whether the ISAF mission in the South of Afghanistan (Uruzgan) must be supported with
up to 1,400 troops.

The coalistion of Christian Democrats (CDA), Liberal-Conservatives (VVD) and Liberal-Liberals (D66) is devided, with the minute and irrelevant Liberal-Liberals opposed, Lib-Cons pro and the Christian-Democrats playing their traditional Yes-No-Maybe attitude.

The arguments. The arguments for sending troop there. I have not really found those in the media. Sending peaceforces shows good intention and Dutch politician LOVE good intentions. Good intentions will get you far in this country.

But ooooh... the risks. There are nasty people there. With guns!!!!! They want to fight. They have no proper insurance for health care. And they still want to fight. Ugh. Fanatics. Some of them even do not mind to die. Baaad Afghani's. Must we send TROOPS into areas were there is unrest and chaos and insurrection kinda like it is a WAR out there.

My completely idiotic, lost the plot, do not know what is going on leaders are discussing the risks now and whether they are acceptable.

Personally I think we should not send the troops. It is not that they can achieve anything there. The only good side about it is that the Americans like us doing it. And if it is wrong there will be a lot of chatter about it in the media and perhaps a few people will learn something about it how the rest of the world works.

It would take about 20 men with assault rifles to completely take over this whole country of ours. Just find 20 men with balls of steel and there will be no power here to stop them. This is how weak and useless we have become.