Thursday, January 29, 2009

More on support for Geert Wilders in The Netherlands

Xeriscapist wrote:

"Actually I'm surprised at the low number of 51%. What is your opinion of this poll which asks "should Wilders be prosecuted?" "

The Geenstijl poll that you mention is not representative for the Dutch population but for the readers of Geenstijl. Right-wingers and Freedom-lovers are overrepresented amongst readers of Geenstijl.

As you can read in the rest of the Geenstijl article they are casting doubt on the accuracy of internet polls. They also mention the TNS NIPO poll which polls a more Leftwing oriented group. They show 51 percent approval for prosecuting Geert Wilders for inciting hatred against Islam.

Geenstijl further seems to imply that the people who are polled by peilpunt, the poll that I used as the basis of my article, are more of the Left than of the Right.

My conclusions:

-all the polls are problematic.
-both NPS NIPO and peilpunt poll amongst a group that is more Leftist oriented than the general population

-so the support for Geert Wilders is actually even bigger than the my peilpunt-poll indicates. Support for Wilders is HIGHER amongst the general voting population than 50 percent.

And finally: Even amongst the Leftist TNS NIPO poll there is only 51 percent approval for the prosecution of Geert Wilders. That is a narrow majority.

I think that Geert Wilders stands a lot to win and the Government and the Court stands a lot to lose in the coming legal battle.

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